Prototype · 2024 election · tax, payroll, wages, health & student loans

Ballot Math

See what each platform would mean for your household. Enter your own numbers and see, in real dollars, how Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's actual 2024 platforms would have changed what you owe in income and payroll tax, earn, pay for health coverage and prescription drugs, and pay on student loans — measured against sourced baselines, not guesswork.

For information only, not tax or financial advice. Nothing you type here is sent, saved, or collected — all of the math runs in your own browser and disappears when you close the page.

Your profile

Loaded with an example household so you can see how it works — edit any field and recalculate for your own numbers.

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Income tax: what each platform would mean for you

Estimated federal income tax owed under each scenario, shown in this order: the baseline (a reference point), Harris's platform, Trump's platform, and what actually became law. The chip on each card is the change versus the baseline — a minus sign means you'd owe less, a plus sign means you'd owe more.

What "baseline" means: it is not today's law. It's the "do nothing" scenario both campaigns were measured against in 2024 — what your taxes were scheduled to become if the 2017 tax cuts (TCJA) simply expired at the end of 2025. Today's actual law is the "Enacted law (OBBBA)" card, shown only as a reality check.

Harris vs. Trump, side by side

How far each platform pushes your tax bill from the baseline — a bar to the left means you'd owe less; a bar to the right means you'd owe more.

Payroll tax (Social Security & Medicare)

Withheld from every paycheck, separately from the income tax above — 6.2% Social Security (up to the wage base cap) plus 1.45% Medicare. Uses your filing status, income, tips, and overtime from your profile above.

Neither candidate proposed a broad change to the Social Security/Medicare payroll tax rate or wage base — Harris's platform made no specific, quantified commitment. Trump's tip/overtime exemption is modeled here as covering payroll tax too, based on analysts' reading of his running mate's comments, not an explicit campaign statement. What actually became law (OBBBA) left payroll tax on tips and overtime completely unchanged — only an income-tax deduction was enacted. See methodology for the full sourcing note.

Minimum wage

This section is for hourly workers only. If you're salaried, you can skip it — it doesn't affect any other result on this page. It only matters if your hourly wage is below a candidate's proposed federal minimum ($15/hour for Harris).

Tariffs & cost of living

Estimated annual increase in what you pay for everyday goods, based on your household income above — tariffs are a tax on imports that gets passed through to consumer prices.

This uses one flat percentage of income for every household, taken from a nonpartisan pre-election estimate of Trump's specific platform. Real-world tariff costs are regressive — lower-income households lose a larger share of their income than higher-income households — so this likely understates the cost for below-median incomes and overstates it for above-median incomes. See methodology for the full sourcing note.

Harris's own targeted tariffs on Chinese EVs and semiconductors aren't modeled here — they raise costs only for households buying those specific goods, not a general cost-of-living increase.

Corporate tax incidence

Corporations don't really "pay" a tax the way you do — economists agree the cost passes through to real people via lower investment returns and/or lower wages. This estimates your household's indirect share of each platform's corporate tax rate change, based on the income you entered above. It is not a bill you would receive.

Own a small business? Most small businesses (sole proprietorships, partnerships, LLCs, and S-corporations) are taxed on the owner's personal tax return, not at the corporate rate, so these proposals don't change their tax directly. The corporate rate applies to C-corporations. This section is about how corporate rate changes ripple through to everyone's wages and investments.

Uses the Tax Policy Center's standard assumption that 80% of a corporate tax change lands on investment returns and 20% on wages, applied to your own income and investment income above. Trump also floated a 15% rate specifically for domestic manufacturers — this calculator uses his broader, unconditional 20% figure instead, since it's the one directly comparable to Harris's economy-wide 28% proposal. See methodology for the full caveat.

Estate & gift tax

Only relevant if your estate (everything you own, at your death) would exceed a few million dollars. A one-time liability at death, not an annual cost — shown separately from the figures above.

ACA marketplace health insurance subsidies

Only relevant if you buy your own health coverage on the ACA marketplace (healthcare.gov or your state exchange) rather than through an employer or Medicare/Medicaid. (Quick distinction: Medicaid is government coverage for people with low incomes, run by each state; Medicare is federal coverage mainly for people 65 and older.)

Above 400% of the federal poverty line, the credit is $0 under the baseline/Trump scenario no matter how expensive your plan is — this is the "subsidy cliff" that Harris's platform proposes to permanently remove.

For context: 7.9% of Americans (about 26.7 million people) went without health insurance for all of 2025 — U.S. Census Bureau, "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025."

Prescription drug out-of-pocket costs

Who this is for: anyone who pays for prescriptions out of pocket. Today, Medicare caps what a beneficiary pays for drugs at $2,000 a year — but only people on Medicare get that protection. Harris proposed extending the same cap to everyone else (people with employer or marketplace insurance, or no insurance). If someone in your household is on Medicare, you're already covered by the cap, so Harris's proposal won't change your numbers. Only relevant if you or someone in your household takes prescription medication.

Student loans

Compares staying on the SAVE income-driven repayment plan (Harris) against reverting to the standard 10-year plan (Trump's likely direction — see the methodology caveat below). Only relevant if you carry federal student loan debt. Other debts — mortgages, car loans, credit cards — aren't included yet: student loans are the one kind of debt where the two platforms' positions can be measured from just a few inputs.

Household size is taken from your filing status and dependents above.

Methodology & sources

Every figure below is either directly sourced or flagged as an assumption used to fill a genuine gap in the campaigns' public platforms.

What the four scenarios mean
  • Baseline (historical) — what your taxes were scheduled to become if the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expired at the end of 2025 with no new law. This is the "do nothing" comparison point both 2024 platforms were actually measured against. sourced It never took effect — see below.
  • Harris platform — Kamala Harris's official 2024 campaign tax proposals.
  • Trump platform — Donald Trump's official 2024 campaign tax proposals.
  • Enacted law (reference) — what actually became law: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, which permanently extended most TCJA provisions instead of letting them expire. Shown only as a reality check — it is not a candidate platform.
Sourced figures

Income tax

  • 2026 scheduled-expiration tax brackets, including the head-of-household schedule and standard deduction — Tax Foundation, citing CBO "Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates" sourced
  • Harris's $400k/$450k pledge, standard deduction, NIIT hike, and capital gains proposal — Forbes; CRFB "The Full Harris Plan"; Neuberger Berman Insights sourced
  • Harris's age-tiered Child Tax Credit ($3,600 / $3,000 / $6,000) — CRFB; NewEdge Capital Group sourced
  • Trump's TCJA-permanence pledge, tip/overtime/Social Security exemptions — CRFB "The Full Trump Plan"; Neuberger Berman Insights sourced
  • OBBBA enacted figures (37% top rate, $15,750/$31,500 standard deduction, $2,200 Child Tax Credit) — Tax Foundation OBBBA FAQ sourced
  • OBBBA's real tip income deduction ($25,000 cap, phasing out above $150k/$300k MAGI) and overtime deduction ($12,500/$25,000 cap, same phase-out) — IRS Newsroom, "One, Big, Beautiful Bill: How to take advantage of no tax on tips and overtime"; University of Illinois Tax School sourced
  • OBBBA's additional senior deduction ($6,000 per filer age 65+, phasing out above $75k/$150k MAGI at 6%) and confirmation that it leaves Social Security's underlying taxability formula unchanged — Tax Foundation sourced

Payroll tax

  • Current law: 6.2% Social Security up to the $168,600 (2024) wage base, 1.45% Medicare uncapped, plus a 0.9% Additional Medicare Tax above $200k single/HoH or $250k joint — Social Security Administration; IRS sourced
  • Trump's tip/overtime exemption modeled as covering payroll tax as well as income tax — Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, "Donald Trump's Proposal to Exempt Tip Income from Federal Taxes" and "...to End Taxes on Overtime," both explicitly noting this is an analyst assumption based on running mate JD Vance's comments, not a detailed campaign statement sourced
  • OBBBA's real tip/overtime deductions leave payroll tax completely unchanged — workers still pay full Social Security and Medicare tax on every dollar of tips and overtime — H&R Block, "One Big Beautiful Bill: No Tax on Overtime pay explained" sourced

Minimum wage

  • Harris's "at least $15/hour" minimum wage figure, stated directly to NBC News, Oct 2024 — CRFB, "Kamala Harris's Plan to Exempt Tips from Taxes and Raise the Minimum Wage" sourced

Tariffs & cost of living

  • Trump's tariff platform (10–20% universal, 60% on China) — FactCheck.org, "Trump's Agenda: Tariffs" sourced
  • Household cost estimate for Trump's tariff platform (4.1% of income, ~$2,600/year for the median household) — Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), Aug. 2024 sourced
  • Harris's rejection of a broad tariff and continuation of Biden's targeted Chinese EV (100%) and semiconductor/solar (50%) tariffs — Radio Free Asia, "EXPLAINED: Trump's and Harris' differing proposals on Chinese tariffs" sourced

Corporate tax incidence

  • Harris's corporate tax proposal (21% → 28%) — CNN, "US corporate tax: Harris proposes raising rate to 28%"; CRFB sourced
  • Trump's corporate tax proposals (21% → 20% general rate; 21% → 15% for domestic manufacturers only) — Bloomberg, "Trump Tells CEOs He Would Cut Corporate Tax Rate to 20%," June 2024; New York Times/PolitiFact and CRFB on the 15% manufacturer-only rate, Sept. 2024 sourced
  • Corporate tax incidence split (80% capital / 20% labor) — Tax Policy Center sourced

Estate & gift tax

  • Current law ($13.61M exemption, 40% rate); Harris ($3.5M exemption, 55/60/65% graduated rates, 10% billionaire surcharge over $1B); Trump (extend $13.61M/40%); OBBBA's actual enacted $15M exemption (2026+) — NewEdge Capital Group; Neuberger Berman Insights; multiple estate-planning law firm summaries of OBBBA sourced

ACA & the Medicaid coverage gap

  • ACA premium tax credit tables (both the enhanced 2024 formula and the original formula with the 400% FPL cliff), and Harris's proposal to make the enhancement permanent — IRS Revenue Procedure 2023-29; TheFinanceBuff; KFF candidate comparison sourced
  • The Medicaid coverage gap: the 10 states that hadn't expanded Medicaid as of 2024 (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming), the ~1.6 million affected uninsured adults, and Harris's continued support for a federal fix (part of the failed Build Back Better Act) versus Trump's no-proposal/Medicaid-cuts stance — KFF, "Compare the Trump and Harris Health Care Records and Positions"; Stateline, "In the 10 states that didn't expand Medicaid, 1.6M can't afford health insurance," July 2024; CBPP sourced
  • National uninsured rate (7.9%, 2025) — U.S. Census Bureau, "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025" sourced

Prescription drug out-of-pocket costs

  • The $2,000 annual cap on Medicare beneficiaries' out-of-pocket prescription drug costs (and the $35/month insulin cap) under current law — Inflation Reduction Act of 2022; CMS sourced
  • Harris's platform proposal to extend both caps to all Americans, not just Medicare beneficiaries — Harris-Walz campaign policy book, "A New Way Forward for the Middle Class," p.26: "Extend the $35 cap on insulin and $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket costs to all Americans, not just seniors." sourced

Student loans

  • SAVE plan formula (5% of discretionary income above 225% of the federal poverty line for undergraduate-only loans) and the 2024–25 federal direct undergraduate loan rate (6.53%) — Federal Student Aid; New York Tech financial aid office sourced

General context

  • National median household income ($87,460), 2025 — U.S. Census Bureau, "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025" sourced
Assumptions used to fill gaps

Income tax

  • Neither campaign specified a dollar cap on their tip-income exemption — modeled here with no cap. Real legislation would very likely include one. assumed
  • Harris's platform doesn't specify a Child Tax Credit phaseout threshold — her overall $400k/$450k pledge threshold is used as a stand-in. assumed
  • Harris's platform doesn't clarify the credit for a child's exact first birthday year — age 0 is treated as "newborn" ($6,000), ages 1–5 as the $3,600 tier. assumed
  • Social Security benefit taxability (for all scenarios except Trump's, which eliminates it) uses a simplified version of the IRS's real provisional-income worksheet — close, not filing-accurate. assumed
  • The MAGI used to test OBBBA's real tip/overtime/senior deduction phase-outs is approximated as gross wage income + taxable Social Security + investment income, since this tool doesn't otherwise model full AGI with itemized adjustments. The real IRS phase-out also steps down in $1,000 increments; this calculator uses a smooth, continuous version of the same 10%/6% reduction rates instead. assumed
  • Head-of-household Child Tax Credit phaseout threshold and NIIT/Social-Security thresholds are assumed identical to single-filer thresholds — consistent with how the IRC has historically treated HoH the same as single filers for these specific provisions, but not separately itemized in every sourced document. assumed
  • Harris's $400,000 CTC/top-bracket pledge threshold is applied to head-of-household filers the same as single filers — her platform doesn't break out a separate HoH figure. assumed

Payroll tax

  • Neither campaign made a specific, quantified 2024 proposal on the Social Security/Medicare payroll tax rate or wage base — Harris's platform is modeled as unchanged from current law, reflecting the absence of a commitment rather than a position on the merits. assumed
  • This module assumes all reported income is W-2 wage income subject to standard employee-side FICA withholding — it doesn't model self-employment (SECA) tax, which runs roughly double the rate for 1099/self-employment income. assumed

Minimum wage

  • Trump gave no 2024 minimum-wage figure — his scenario is modeled as unchanged from the current $7.25 federal floor. That's an absence of a proposal, not evidence he opposed a raise. assumed

Tariffs & cost of living

  • Trump's tariff cost is modeled as a flat 4.1% of household income for every income level, taken from PIIE's estimate for the "typical" (median) household. PIIE's own research found this burden is regressive in reality — a bigger income-share hit for lower earners — so this flat-percentage approach is a known simplification, not a claim that every household loses exactly the same share. assumed
  • Harris's targeted tariffs (100% on Chinese EVs, 50% on Chinese semiconductors/solar cells) are not modeled as a general cost-of-living figure — they only affect households buying those specific goods, and this calculator doesn't ask about specific purchases. assumed

Corporate tax incidence

  • Trump's corporate tax figure uses his broader, unconditional 20% general-rate proposal rather than his later 15% domestic-manufacturer-only rate, since it's the one directly comparable to Harris's economy-wide 28% proposal — most corporations, and most households' investment holdings, wouldn't qualify for the narrower 15% rate anyway. assumed
  • The corporate tax incidence estimate applies the Tax Policy Center's 80%/20% capital/labor split directly to your reported investment and wage income, as a simplification — it doesn't model indirect equity exposure (401(k)s, pensions), foreign corporate ownership, or the kind of general-equilibrium wage effects CBO's and TPC's own distributional models capture, and it assumes zero consumer-price pass-through (TPC's briefing book attributes essentially none of the corporate tax's incidence to consumers directly). assumed

Estate & gift tax

  • The estate tax baseline uses $5.5M as the midpoint of the sourced "$5-7 million" scheduled-expiration range, since no single baseline figure is given. It also applies one flat 40% rate above the exemption for the baseline/Trump/OBBBA scenarios — the real current-law schedule has several lower graduated brackets, but they're compressed into roughly the first $1M above the exemption, so this is a close approximation for most estates that owe anything at all. assumed
  • The estate tax module models only an individual's own exemption, not the "portability" mechanism that lets a married couple combine both spouses' exemptions (roughly double the individual figures shown). assumed

ACA & the Medicaid coverage gap

  • Trump made no specific 2024 commitment on ACA subsidies — his scenario is modeled identically to the no-extension baseline, since that's the default outcome of proposing nothing, not an inference about repeal. assumed
  • The ACA benchmark premium (2nd-lowest-cost Silver plan) varies by state, county, age, and household size with no single national figure — you enter your own from healthcare.gov rather than the tool guessing one. assumed
  • Harris's Medicaid-coverage-gap figure models her platform's supported federal fix as if it had become law — it never did (the Build Back Better Act provision failed in Congress), so this is what her platform proposed, not a benefit anyone in the gap currently receives. Trump's figure reflects the real, unchanged $0-coverage-option outcome, since he proposed no fix. assumed

Prescription drug out-of-pocket costs

  • Trump's 2024 platform made no specific commitment on the $2,000/$35 Medicare drug cost caps — modeled as unchanged from current law (Medicare beneficiaries keep the caps, everyone else stays uncapped), the default outcome of no proposal, not an inference about repeal. Post-election (2025) administration actions on Medicare drug pricing are a separate, later development, not part of the 2024 platform comparison. assumed
  • OBBBA is treated as leaving the $2,000/$35 drug cost caps unchanged, based on the absence of any sourced reporting that OBBBA touched them (its Medicare provisions focus on narrowing which drugs are subject to price negotiation, a related but separate mechanism) — not a direct confirmation. assumed

Student loans

  • Trump did not personally propose ending the SAVE plan in his 2024 platform. His scenario models reversion to the standard repayment plan as an inference from his stated general opposition to loan forgiveness plus his first-term budget proposals to cut Public Service Loan Forgiveness (rejected by Congress each time) — not a direct 2024 platform citation. assumed
  • Any borrower with graduate-school debt is modeled at a flat 10% SAVE-plan discretionary-income rate as a simplification of the real blended undergrad/grad formula. assumed
What this tool doesn't cover yet
Federal income tax (single, married filing jointly, and head-of-household brackets, including OBBBA's real tip/overtime/senior deductions), payroll tax, minimum wage, tariff cost-of-living impact, corporate tax incidence, estate/gift tax, student loan repayment, ACA marketplace subsidies (including the Medicaid coverage gap), and the Medicare prescription drug out-of-pocket cap are modeled so far — not employer-sponsored insurance, since neither 2024 platform proposed a material change to how it's taxed or structured. Other kinds of debt (mortgages, car loans, credit cards) aren't modeled either; a few proposals touch them, such as auto-loan interest deductions and first-time homebuyer help, and they're candidates for a future version. The tariff module doesn't account for purchase-specific targeted tariffs, the corporate tax module is an illustrative incidence estimate rather than a full distributional model, the estate tax module doesn't model spousal portability, and the payroll tax module doesn't model self-employment (SECA) tax. This is an early prototype, not a finished product, and not tax, legal, or financial advice.
Glossary
  • Baseline — the "do nothing" comparison point: what your taxes were scheduled to become if the 2017 tax cuts expired on schedule at the end of 2025. It is not today's law.
  • Change vs. baseline (the +/− chips) — the difference between a scenario and the baseline. A minus sign means less of that amount (for example, less tax owed); a plus sign means more. Whether that's good or bad depends on the number — less tax is good, a smaller subsidy is not.
  • TCJA — the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which lowered tax rates and raised the standard deduction. Most individual provisions were scheduled to expire after 2025.
  • OBBBA — the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025. It made most TCJA provisions permanent and added new deductions (for tips, overtime, and seniors).
  • NIIT — Net Investment Income Tax: an extra 3.8% tax on investment income (interest, dividends, capital gains, rent) for higher earners. Harris proposed raising it to 5% for incomes above $400,000.
  • MAGI — modified adjusted gross income: roughly your income after certain adjustments, used to decide who qualifies for deductions, credits, and subsidies.
  • Standard deduction — a flat amount of income you don't pay income tax on, so you don't have to itemize.
  • Child Tax Credit — a credit that directly reduces your tax bill for each qualifying child under 17.
  • Payroll tax (FICA) — Social Security (6.2%) and Medicare (1.45%) taxes taken out of every paycheck, separate from income tax.
  • Wage base — the income level above which Social Security tax stops applying ($168,600 in 2024).
  • Tariff — a tax on imported goods, usually passed on to shoppers as higher prices.
  • Tax incidence — who actually bears the cost of a tax, regardless of who writes the check. Corporations send the tax payment, but the cost lands on shareholders, workers, and customers.
  • ACA — the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare"). Its marketplace (healthcare.gov and state exchanges) sells health plans, and its subsidies (premium tax credits) lower the monthly cost for eligible households.
  • Federal poverty line (FPL) — the government's income threshold for poverty, which varies by household size. ACA subsidies are based on how many times your income exceeds it.
  • Subsidy cliff — the point (400% of the poverty line) where ACA subsidies stop entirely under the baseline rules.
  • Medicare vs. Medicaid — Medicare is federal health coverage mainly for people 65 and older. Medicaid is health coverage for people with low incomes, run by each state.
  • Medicaid coverage gap — people whose income is too high for Medicaid in their state but too low for ACA subsidies, because their state didn't expand Medicaid.
  • SAVE plan — an income-driven federal student loan repayment plan that sets your payment as a share of your income above a protected amount, instead of a fixed amount.
  • Estate tax exemption — the amount of an estate that can pass to heirs tax-free; only the value above it is taxed.